Bitcoin will one day surpass £1,000,000

{Edited 7/7/23 to add the “Black Swan” section.)

Projecting forward from Bitcoin’s regular 4-year price cycle suggests it could reach £1,000,000 and beyond.

That Bitcoin’s price cycle is so regular tells us that, surely, it has to be related to Bitcoin’s other 4-year cycle: the “halving*”.

This is when Bitcoin’s computer programme tells it to halve the rewards in Bitcoin, which are paid out every ten minutes. More of the halving later; let’s look again at the 4-year price pattern. The timing of the halving is marked by blue vertical lines.

You will observe that the Bitcoin price peak has, so far, occurred 18 months — to the month — after the halving.

This is remarkable. We can’t be 100% sure that this will continue, of course — after all, 3 data points “do not a firm conclusion make”. But logic tells me that it’s better than evens that the Bitcoin price will peak next in November/December 2025 and then in very late 2029. Let’s see if I’m right.

And a price target?

As a price target, looking again at history, we have a 12x rise from 2013 to 2017: and a 3.3x rise from 2017 to 2021. There is little doubt that the 2021 peak was suppressed by the massive impact of the “China mining ban” in September 2021. Listening to my favourite analysts, I expected a peak of> £100k rather than the £50k achieved in November 2021. So that 3.3x should, perhaps, have been at least 6x.

So, when forecasting the price at the expected Nov/Dec 2025 price peak, we have a choice of multiples to use:

1. 3.3 x — the same as in 2021. That would make the target ~ £150k

2. 6 x, which is what the 2021 price would have been, had the China mining ban not happened — an estimated £100k. Target ~ £600k

PlanB**, one of my favourite price analysts, is in the same range as these estimates. He gives a very wide price range for late 2025: $100,000 to $1m (£80,000 to £800,000). This forecast is largely based on his “stock to flow” financial model.

I’m ready for a price between the £300,000 to £500,000 level in late 2025. If I’m right, this means that a late 2029 price of >£1m is quite likely.

Another “Black Swan?”?

A Black Swan is a rare catastrophic event — like the 2008 banking crisis, for example. In Bitcoin’s life, the most recent black swan event was China banning Bitcoin mining in September 2021. This major shock reduced the total Bitcoin “hashing power” — the computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin — by a shocking 50% in only two months. This surprised buyers: and dampened the Bitcoin price, suppressing the expected November 2021 peak from £100k down to £50k. The black swan occurring just before the expected 4-year Bitcoin cycle peak was bad timing!

Another black swan event could occur, but hopefully, it will not happen in September 2025 — two months before the next expected bitcoin price peak.

That black swan could be a recession.

Recession

A recession is almost certain in the UK, EU and USA. I won’t go into detail as it would soon be out of date in the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment.

I listen to many opinions from clever folk in macro (mainly via the excellent RealVision platform). The majority view is that the coming recession will cover most of 2024. Recessions are usually 1–2 years, so if it’s one year long, we will be climbing out of it by around January 2025. This would mean that the expected Bitcoin peak of November 2025 could proceed unimpeded. But some analysts think the recession could last well into 2025, so the expected November 2025 peak could be more affected.

My working thesis is that there will be a November 2025 peak: but I will keep monitoring as we approach that date.

The effect of recession is actually more complicated than this. The reason is, the analysis above assumes that the Bitcoin price remains “correlated” with the stock market — which it has been for the past 2–3 years.

As markets get to understand Bitcoin better, they will realise that Bitcoin is better regarded as a gold substitute, and correlates with the gold price — which moves opposite to the stock market.

Again, best just to be aware of this and monitor the Bitcoin price in real time.

Smart Money

These are people — often big investors — who “know the 4-year cycle”. They are the opposite of the retail FOMO crowd. Many buy 10, 100, or 1000 BTC at a time. They are called smart because they SELL Bitcoin to retail to release some profit as the price peaks: and they BUY Bitcoin in the bear market — when it is shunned by retail. Smart money knows that Bitcoin in the doldrums is cheap, and they buy it in expectation of it shooting up 1–2 years later. So far, it has!

Even as small buyers, we need to be like the smart money: and not get tied up in the emotions of retail — many of whom are new to crypto.

Once you have been through one whole 4-year cycle, you’ll know much better what will likely be the pattern in the next 4-year cycle.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: JUST EDUCATION.

Notes

*The Halving

Satoshi Nakamoto created an “issuance schedule” for Bitcoin, which involved creating a certain amount of Bitcoin every ten minutes, starting at 50 Bitcoin and halving every four years until, in 2140, it would finally have reduced to zero. No more Bitcoin will be produced after this.

The May 2024 halving triggers the reduction to 3.125 Bitcoin every ten minutes.

**PlanB

Nathan Sloan explaining PlanB’s charts, with a clip of PlanB giving his $100k-$1m prediction for late 2025, at 4:00: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhH01s6Rc0c